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Calculator

Kelly Criterion Calculator

The mathematically optimal way to size bets for long-run bankroll growth. Most pros run quarter or half Kelly to soften the variance.

Optimal stake
Bet size (% of roll)
Edge
Full Kelly

Why most pros run fractional Kelly

Full Kelly maximizes long-run bankroll growth — but the variance is brutal. A 55% bettor running full Kelly on -110 will see drawdowns of 30%+ regularly, even in winning years. That kind of swing is psychologically damaging and frequently leads bettors to abandon the system at the worst time.

Half Kelly sacrifices about 25% of long-run growth for roughly 50% lower variance. Quarter Kelly sacrifices about 44% of growth for 75% lower variance. For most bettors, half Kelly is the sweet spot — meaningful growth without bankroll-destroying swings.

Note: if your edge estimate is wrong (and it usually is, at least a bit), full Kelly can be catastrophic. Fractional Kelly provides a buffer against your own overestimation of edge.