Variance is a term used quite simply to mean the highs and the lows of poker. Sometimes you can have what’s called positive variance which is foundation for an upswing in your results, contrastingly you can have negative variance which is the opposite and will be part of a downswing in results.
Test Your New Poker Skills Today at:
Variance affects what you are expected to win in poker in terms of how much money you should win or lose. Often it’s tough to get a true reading on your variance unless you have a large sample size of hands determining your true win rate.
However, variance can affect the game in much simpler terms as well. Let’s take a look…
Example Of Variance
In poker there are few things which are certain outcomes, but everything will have either a positive or negative situation. Variance affects everything and has a part in almost every aspect of the game.
If we were dealt pocket Aces and ended up getting it all in pre flop versus pocket Kings 5 times we would be an 81% favourite to win the hand when the money goes in. Now this is obviously a fantastic situation for us as we are such a large favourite, but there is a chance, albeit unlikely, that we could lose all 5 of the all ins. This is down to variance.
Causes Of Variance
As we know, poker is a skill game, but there is a big element of luck involved as well. Even after we have spent hours perfecting our game and understanding what to do in certain situations to get our money in ahead, there is no guarantee that we are going to win.
Over time and over a large enough sample, variance should even itself out, meaning that if we get our money in as favourites often enough versus our opponent; we will prosper and make money. However, short term variance can be extremely frustrating for players, but it is important that you learn to cope with this and accept it.
Influences Of Variance
There are many factors that can influence the amount of variance in poker.
Your playing style can have a huge influence on how variance will have affect your game. If you are a loose player playing lots of hands and getting your money in spots which you are only a marginal favourite in the hand (or even marginal underdog) then variance will be a massive factor.
Different game types also carry different amounts of variance. For example Omaha is renowned for players have some of the biggest upswings and downswings (variance) in poker. With the increased number of cards compared to that of Holdem, the larger the amount of hand combinations there are available. Compared to that of something like limit Holdem where pots sizes will be smaller in terms of big blinds due to limited amount of bets a player can make, resulting in the variance being lower.
Multi Table Tournaments have probably the largest amount of variance compared with that of any other form or variant of poker. The sheer size of the player pools make them tough to make any money from, however on the flip side, can be very lucrative if you do win.
